Projections estimate up to 500 cases of Covid daily by the end of September

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The Minister of Health, Daniel Salas, presented today at a press conference the projections of COVID-19 cases carried out by the Center for Research in Pure and Applied Mathematics (CIMPA) of the University of Costa Rica.

He presented the comparison of two scenarios: one without compliance with measures, that is, assuming that the population does not change their behavior and another with compliance with sanitary measures.

The scenario without compliance with measures implies a pronounced and continuous increase, reaching as of September 30 more than 500 daily cases and a cumulative close to 33,800 cases. Hospitalizations could reach more than 330 cases in the salon and 180 people in intensive care in the second half of September.

On the contrary, the scenario with a population that does comply with the measures, the number of cases becomes more random, with peaks of more than 200 daily cases registered on July 7, August 12 and September 20, reaching a cumulative of 16,160 cases. Hospitalizations would not exceed 126 cases in the classroom and 88 in intensive care.

“Today is when to take personal actions to lower the prevailing curve, tomorrow is late. These projections make that individual responsibility even more evident; the projected cases could double if we as a population do not act responsibly. Each behavior, each action, no matter how minimal they visualize it, impacts us as a country, ”said the hierarch.

The hierarch explained that the projection includes the epidemiological link base updated to June 23, 2020. In the Greater Metropolitan Area it is assumed that a person can have between 5 and 30 contacts a day, and in the rest of the country between 5 and 20. The The size of each network varies daily between these values ​​in a random way.

Projections are a joint work with the CIMPA Team, the office of the Pan American Health Organization of Costa Rica, the Costa Rican Social Security Fund and the Ministry of Health.

Dr. María Dolores Pérez-Rosales, PAHO / WHO Representative in Costa Rica, highlighted the coordinated work between the MS, the CIMPA / UCR, the CCSS and PAHO / WHO, so that the country has a model of projections that provides articulated and inter-institutionally analyzed information for evidence-based decision making.

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